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Matt Newell's avatar

This is a great post - despite what you say I really like the journal-type posts that go into the author’s psychology, and the intellectual honesty you display here is phenomenal.

Just taking a peak at the stock chart as it’s not a company I know at all - what has been the cause of the recent decline? My impression from this post is that $22 is a rather attractive level, so if that hasn’t come with any major problems for the business I might put it towards the top of my to-do list.

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Dean's avatar

This post is a gem. I have read it three times now. I really appreciate the depth you went into for the position in the context of your personal life. Not many go into detail on their largest positions like this. I think it's easy to look back in hindsight and say you did something wrong (or could have done something better). Personally, I don't think there was as much to unpack here as you do. It seems like there is such a fine line between conviction and misstep. You didn't blow up and are still in the game and that is enough. I don't own any Moberg but did have 35-40% of my portfolio in Cipher going into the whole trial snafu and it certainly stung. I panic sold in the 14s then bought it all back in the 15s after doing some more work. Time will tell if I look like a hero or fall victim to hubris.

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