This post is a gem. I have read it three times now. I really appreciate the depth you went into for the position in the context of your personal life. Not many go into detail on their largest positions like this. I think it's easy to look back in hindsight and say you did something wrong (or could have done something better). Personally, I don't think there was as much to unpack here as you do. It seems like there is such a fine line between conviction and misstep. You didn't blow up and are still in the game and that is enough. I don't own any Moberg but did have 35-40% of my portfolio in Cipher going into the whole trial snafu and it certainly stung. I panic sold in the 14s then bought it all back in the 15s after doing some more work. Time will tell if I look like a hero or fall victim to hubris.
I don’t know that you did anything wrong honestly. There’s a lot of diverse, durable assets in DRM. I think you could justify going big. And you knew what you were doing. I did 40% by 2018. Markets IMO are getting stupider, at least with smaller stocks. It’s going to be a critical skill to ignore the big swings. Thinking of all your stocks as private companies is the way to go. If DRM had been private the last few years you would have thought its value was stable or growing the whole time.
I think the leverage was probably a mistake, or at least the amount was perhaps. I haven't done a full accounting of what that may have cost me - it would be a lot of work, I am not going to borrow to invest again anyway so there's no future action to be taken regarding it, and I think whatever I find out would just anger/sadden me - but I think there was little need to do it, at the time I did it, and in the amount I did it in. I should have done that more thoughtfully. That's the one thing I think I'd do differently.
Other than that, I agree that the thought process of thinking about it as a private asset and holding on to a good company you know well are good behaviours that shouldn't be discouraged because it didn't necessarily work out over a short time frame (in the context of and investing lifetime).
A great piece, marvelous writing - investment or not. I read your Dream writings a few times and benefited a lot! Very much appreciate your intellectual honesty!
This post is a gem. I have read it three times now. I really appreciate the depth you went into for the position in the context of your personal life. Not many go into detail on their largest positions like this. I think it's easy to look back in hindsight and say you did something wrong (or could have done something better). Personally, I don't think there was as much to unpack here as you do. It seems like there is such a fine line between conviction and misstep. You didn't blow up and are still in the game and that is enough. I don't own any Moberg but did have 35-40% of my portfolio in Cipher going into the whole trial snafu and it certainly stung. I panic sold in the 14s then bought it all back in the 15s after doing some more work. Time will tell if I look like a hero or fall victim to hubris.
Thanks Dean. Means a lot coming from you.
I don’t know that you did anything wrong honestly. There’s a lot of diverse, durable assets in DRM. I think you could justify going big. And you knew what you were doing. I did 40% by 2018. Markets IMO are getting stupider, at least with smaller stocks. It’s going to be a critical skill to ignore the big swings. Thinking of all your stocks as private companies is the way to go. If DRM had been private the last few years you would have thought its value was stable or growing the whole time.
I think the leverage was probably a mistake, or at least the amount was perhaps. I haven't done a full accounting of what that may have cost me - it would be a lot of work, I am not going to borrow to invest again anyway so there's no future action to be taken regarding it, and I think whatever I find out would just anger/sadden me - but I think there was little need to do it, at the time I did it, and in the amount I did it in. I should have done that more thoughtfully. That's the one thing I think I'd do differently.
Other than that, I agree that the thought process of thinking about it as a private asset and holding on to a good company you know well are good behaviours that shouldn't be discouraged because it didn't necessarily work out over a short time frame (in the context of and investing lifetime).
Fellow holder. Held dream through over 50% drawdown too. Not quite as concentrated though.
A great piece, marvelous writing - investment or not. I read your Dream writings a few times and benefited a lot! Very much appreciate your intellectual honesty!
Thank you for the kind words, and I appreciate knowing you took value from what I wrote
a brutally honest journal, thanks for sharing.
Thanks for reading, glad you liked it